25%
305%
the country that closes
rest-of-world residual
no data
too small to draw
drag to spin · scroll or pinch to zoom · click a country
shading = trade openness (exports + imports as a share of GDP)
—
—1Set the shock
Set automatically from this country’s own current data.
Tariffs ✓ backtested at +2.4pp
—
a tax on everything imported from
Money leaving ◖ observed
—
investment relocating abroad
Migration cap ◖ observed
—
arrivals blocked at the border
each dial moves on its own · 0 = nothing changes
0 = no change · only tariffs travel abroad · money
and people hit home alone
Nothing set yet. Drag any dial to set a shock and see what it costs.
2Outcomes at this severity
— of GDP
“After shock” means one to two years out, compared with the same period if nothing had changed.
2What the origin stops buying
origin
— of imports gone
Every figure on this panel is one to two years out, against the same period with no shock.
3Most affected
Biggest winners, untargeted suppliers picking up the diverted demand
Least affected, among the 30 largest economies
Country detail
First-order spillover accounting, goods trade only,
not general equilibrium.
Universal-closure
scenario. Trade-diversion gains are not modelled
under universal closure: every supplier faces the same wall, so no untaxed alternative exists
(target one partner to see diversion). Services and remittance exposure are flagged, not counted.
The “holds top-3 in N% of input draws” figure is
that test, and only that test: it resamples inputs with the model’s structure held
fixed, so the omissions listed above contribute nothing to it. The least-affected list
carries no such figure; it is an argmax over a restricted set where hits cluster near
zero, and is the more fragile of the two rankings.
Where the loss comes from
distortion
costlier inputs
lost export value
forgone investment
lost labour